After months of deliberation, NASA announced on Thursday that it will make a final decision on the fate of two astronauts aboard the International Space Station, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, by the weekend. As early as Saturday, the two crew members will find out whether they will return in early September on a Starliner spacecraft or next February on a Crew Dragon vehicle.
On the eve of this fateful decision, the most consequential human spaceflight safety decision NASA has had to make in more than two decades, Ars has compiled a summary of what we know, what we believe to be true, and what is still unknown.
Why did NASA take so long?
Wilmore and Williams arrived at the International Space Station 11 weeks ago. Their mission was scheduled to last eight days, but there were some expectations that they might stay a little longer. However, no one expected the crew to stay that long. That changed when, during Starliner's flight to the space station, five of the 28 small thrusters that control Starliner failed. After some touch-and-go operations, astronauts and flight controllers at the Johnson Space Center brought the spacecraft to a safe docking with the station.
That in-space failure prompted months of testing, both aboard the vehicle in space and with similar engines on the ground in New Mexico. That was followed by extensive data reviews and modeling by engineers to understand the root cause of the engine problems. On Friday, lower-level managers will meet in a program control panel to discuss their findings and make recommendations to senior managers. Those officials, chaired by NASA Administrator Bill Nelson, will make a final decision at a flight readiness review in Houston on Saturday.
What are the two options?
NASA managers will decide whether to send the astronauts home on the Starliner, possibly as early as Sept. 2, or fly them back to Earth on a Crew Dragon spacecraft scheduled for launch Sept. 24. To make room for Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, this so-called “Crew-9” mission would launch with two astronauts instead of the full crew of four. Wilmore and Williams would then join the mission for their six-month backup aboard the space station – their eight-day stay would then be eight months.
How do Butch and Suni feel about this?
We don't know, as they haven't spoken to the media since it became clear they might stay in space for an extended period of time. However, according to various sources, the two crew members are taking it more or less calmly. They understand that this is a test flight, and their training included the possibility of staying in space for an extended period of time in case there are any problems with Starliner.
But that doesn't mean it would be practical. Both Wilmore and Williams have families on Earth who were expecting them home by now, and the station wasn't prepared for an extended stay. Wilmore, for example, had to sleep in a science lab rather than a designated sleeping area, so he had to pack up his personal belongings every morning.
What seems clear, however, is that Wilmore and Williams will accept NASA's decision this weekend. In other words, they will not start a revolt in space. They trust NASA officials to make the right safety decision, whatever it may be. (The same goes for Ars, by the way.)
Why is this a difficult decision?
First and foremost, NASA is interested in getting its astronauts home safely. But there are countless other secondary decision factors, and bringing Butch and Suni home on Dragon rather than Starliner raises a new set of problems. A major one is that it would be devastating for Boeing. Its public image would be terrible should longtime rival SpaceX have to step in and “rescue” the crew from an “unsafe” Boeing vehicle. Moreover, the company has already lost $1.6 billion on the Starliner program, and there is a chance Boeing will shut it down. NASA does not want to lose a second provider of crew transportation services to the space station.