With the 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine rollout approved yesterday approaching, some Americans are now considering when to get their dose—right when the summer surge peaks, a little later in the fall to maximize protection for the coming winter surge, or perhaps a few weeks before a big family gathering at the end of the year? Of course, the group pondering such a question is only a small portion of the United States.
Only 22.5 percent of adults and 14 percent of children in the country are estimated to have received the 2023-2024 vaccine. In contrast, an estimated 48.5 percent of adults and 54 percent of children have received a flu shot. This stark difference exists despite the fact that COVID-19 is more deadly than the flu and the SARS-CoV-2 virus evolves faster than seasonal flu viruses.
In a press conference Friday, federal health officials quickly shifted focus elsewhere as reporters asked questions about the timing of COVID-19 vaccinations in the coming months and the possibility of booster vaccines twice a year instead of just once to keep pace with an evolving virus that has spawned both summer and winter waves.
“The current problem is not that the virus is evolving so much, at least in my estimation,” Peter Marks, the Food and Drug Administration's top vaccine regulator, told reporters. “It's that we don't have the benefits of the vaccine that [to say] that it is not the vaccines that prevent disease, it is the vaccination. It is about getting the vaccines into arms.” When exactly one gets vaccinated is a matter of personal choice, Marks continued, but the most important decision is to get vaccinated.
Estimates for this winter
The press conference, which included several federal health officials, was designed to highlight the administration's preparations and hopes for the upcoming respiratory virus season. The FDA, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) are urging all Americans to get vaccinated against respiratory viruses – flu, COVID-19 and RSV.
CDC Director Mandy Cohen unveiled an updated data page that provides snapshots of local respiratory virus activity, national trends, data visualizations and the latest guidance in one place. HHS, meanwhile, highlighted a new educational campaign called “Risk Less. Do More” to raise awareness of COVID-19 and encourage vaccination, especially among high-risk groups. For those not at high risk, health officials continue to stress the importance of vaccination to reduce transmission and prevent serious outcomes, including long COVID. “There is no group at no risk,” Cohen said, noting that the group with the highest emergency department visits for COVID-19 was children under 5, who are not typically considered a high-risk group.
So far, CDC models predict that this year's winter wave of COVID-19 will be similar, if not slightly weaker in some respects, than last year's winter wave, Cohen said. But she stressed that many assumptions go into the modeling, including how the virus will evolve in the near future and what the vaccine uptake will be. The modeling assumes that the current omicron variants will stay on their trajectory and that the U.S. vaccination rate is about the same as last year. Of course, exceeding last year's vaccination rate could mitigate transmission.